Possibly the truth is that everyone is talking past each other. Certainly in the Moore's Law days "marginal impact" would have meant maybe less then 20%, because differences smaller than that pretty much didn't matter. And there's no way the ISA makes 20% difference.
But today I'd say "marginal impact" is less than 5% which is way more debatable.
Where are the power inefficient x86 chips? If you normalize for production process and put the chips under synthetic load, ARM and x86 usually end up in a similar ballpark of efficiency. ARM is typically less efficient for wide SIMD/vector workloads, but more efficient at idle.
AMD and Intel aren't smartphone manufacturers. Their cash cows aren't in manufacturing mobile chipsets, and neither of them have sweetheart deals on ARM IP with Softbank like Apple does. For the markets they address, it's not unlikely that ARM would be both unprofitable and more power-hungry.
Spoiler, it's not much because most of the actual execution time is spent in a handful of basic OPs.
Branch prediction is where the magic happens today.
Yes, it cost Intel their smartphone contracts, but those weren't high-margin sales in the first place. Conversely, ARM's capricious licensing meant that we wouldn't see truly high-performance ARM cores until M1 and Neoverse hit the market.
Maybe, but the fact remains that they spent years trying to make an Atom that could fit the performance/watt that smartphone makers needed to be competitive, and they couldn't do it, which pretty strongly suggests it's fundamentally difficult. Even if they now try to sour-grapes that they just weren't really trying, I don't believe them.
Yet, on a CISC ISA, you still have to support everything else, which is essentially cruft.
ARM is typically [...] more efficient at idle.
From Intel's perspective, the decision to invest in x86 was purely fiscal. With the benefit of hindsight, it's also pretty obvious that licensing ARM would not have saved the company. Intel was still hamstrung by DUV fabs. It made no sense to abandon their high-margin datacenter market to chase low-margin SOCs."Battery life during our test period seemed to be pretty good and perhaps slightly better than many dual-core Android phone’s we’ve tested."
They weren't (except some games maybe). Most apps were written in Java and JITed.
Here's some more details: https://www.theregister.com/2014/05/02/arm_test_results_atta...
(note it's a 2-part, the "next page" link is small print )