zlacker

i always felt that emotions, instincts, fear, greed, courage, pain are elements of a self-aware conscious loop system that can't be replicated accurately in a digital system and that a seasoned successful traders realize and utilize that the activity is largely is a psychological one. I'm not talking about neutral plays where you can absorb market fluctuations in the short term to extract 1~2% a week but directional trades that almost all traders play (regardless of how what exotic option strategies they are employing).

also the other curious nature of the markets is its ability to destroy any persistent trading system by reverting to its core stochastic properties and its constant ebb and flow from stability to instability that crescendos into systematic instability that rewrite the rules all over again.

ive tried all sorts of ways to do this and without being a large institution and being able to absorb the noise for neutral or legal quasi insider trading via proximity, for the average joe the emotional/psychological hardness you need to survive and be in the <1% of traders is simply too much, its not unlike any other sports or arts, many dream the dream but only few get interviewed and written about.

rather i think to myself the best trade is the simplest one: buy shares or invest in a business with money or time (strongly recommend against using this unless you have no other means) and sell it at a higher price or maintain a long term DCF from a business you own as leverage/collateral to arbitrage whatever rate your central bank sets on assets in demand or will be in demand.

to me its clear where LLM fits and doesn't but ultimately it cannot, will not, must not replace your own agency.