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[return to "Apple Stops Online Sales in Russia Over Ruble Fluctuations"]
1. DenisM+ab[view] [source] 2014-12-16 20:45:54
>>colone+(OP)
When a currency is devaluating but interest rates are low, the banks can borrow at low rate, sell rubles for dollars into sliding market, wait for ruble to slide more, then repay the loan with cheaper rubles and make a big profit. The trouble is they also accelerate the slide, courtesy of the low rates. The central bank rate increase was likely done to head off that particular danger. Of course there are many other factors pressing the ruble down as well, which central bank can't control, but at least they are trying to prevent worseing the situation with their own hands.

Long term high interest rates plus high cost of import supplies will likely strangle the economy though. Increased demand for domestic goods due to higher import prices is a good thing, but one needs capital to operate most businesses. When interest rates are high you can't borrow, and when political situation is flaky fewer people will want to buy equity.

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2. trhway+Mh[view] [source] 2014-12-16 21:46:57
>>DenisM+ab
>the banks can borrow at low rate, sell rubles for dollars into sliding market, wait for ruble to slide more, then repay the loan with cheaper rubles and make a big profit.

don't forget that even according to Russian government 60% of currency trading is insider based, ie. those banks and big traders are tipped (it is Russia after all - 137th place out of 170 rated in world corruption index) when for example Central Bank is to perform a ruble supporting "intervention". SEC and Fed cozying up to Wall St have nothing on how things are done in Moscow :)

>Increased demand for domestic goods due to higher import prices is a good thing

That would probably be the case for any normal country, yet not for Russia. Due to food import sanctions self-imposed by Russia, the price of foreign foods has increased, and the domestic foods prices immediately followed it as a result thus directly increasing consumer felt inflation. And there is no way Russia can noticeably increase food production, at practically any food prices. Instead the only option is to buy in other countries like Brazil, which means paying dollars which would mean even higher ruble prices for these foods on Russian market.

Like during 199x years, for the next several years Russians will be back to dollars (and "black" accounting/contracts/salaries/offshoring) while government would implement significant obstacles to such "dollarisation" of the economy. Which means an immense business opportunities for BTC and other forms of money infrastructure allowing to perform "point A" - rubles in Russia - to "point B" - dollars in a Western country - and which are less subject to the [Russian] government control.

It is kind of surreal - i was inside USSR when it collapsed due to the low oil prices of 198x. I didn't understand it back then. Now i watch this, similar, collapse of smaller, Putin's, version of USSR from comfortable "orchestra" seats (Silicon Valley) and can't stop wondering how things haven't changed a bit.

Edit: to the "twelve40" below - i lived in the USSR/Russia the first 28 years of my life. One can write a huge number of PhD dissertations on the problems of Russian agriculture - legal, social, historical, economical, climate-related, psychological, etc... About the same question is why Russia can't produce a good car, at any prices :)

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3. twelve+Nk[view] [source] 2014-12-16 22:18:41
>>trhway+Mh
> there is no way Russia can noticeably increase food production, at practically any food prices

Source?

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4. byEngi+Do[view] [source] 2014-12-16 23:11:28
>>twelve+Nk
Medvedev. Just admitted very recently that a country occupying half the globe with 130m population can't even grow enough apples. They need to be imported from Poland. The same is true with everything else. Are you kidding me? And then Over 50% of the Russian budget comes from gas and oil exports. The country gdp size is the same as Spain's... So all it really took was to drive oil prices below 60usd a barrel. And the Russian economy is ruined. Wow...
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5. trhway+Cq[view] [source] 2014-12-16 23:48:51
>>byEngi+Do
>a country occupying half the globe with 130m population can't even grow enough apples. They need to be imported from Poland. The same is true with everything else. Are you kidding me? And then Over 50% of the Russian budget comes from gas and oil exports.

Agriculture everywhere is a 1. low margin 2. labor intensive enterprise that requires 3. careful planning, 4. careful execution combined with 5. good stable investment climate and 6. property rights protection. In the relatively harsher climate of Russia the 3. and 4. becomes extremely important while Russians are among the worst people in the world when it comes to the 3. and 4. The 5. and 6. in Russia are among the worst due to its people's general contempt for entrepreneurship and due to dis-functionality and corruptedness of its government at all levels. While when it comes to oil/gas, piping it from the ground beats apple growing by the orders of magnitude wrt. the 1. and 2. :), and the 3. and 4. are partially solved by having foreign companies perform the complex drilling (and kicked out of the country after that :), and giving such high margins the 5. and 6. are solved in oil business by merging with the state which isn't an option for farmers. In short - having oil/gas is a big misfortune for Russia in the long run.

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6. byEngi+WK[view] [source] 2014-12-17 08:19:08
>>trhway+Cq
Whatever. Each and every country in EU produces much, much more food it can consume. Poland produces 100% more food Poles can eat. The same is true for basically whole of EU and the USA. Of course Russia has its excuses, like "it is hard", but dude! Population lower than Pakistan or Japan with soooooo much land. Still can't do it. Apparently all they can do is dig up some oil and gas. Everything else needs to be imported. I understand Saudi Arabia is the same way, but they are on a desert! Pathetic... With all this land, all these resources, all this human capital 60% income dependant on oil and gas exports.
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7. trhway+fN[view] [source] 2014-12-17 09:42:09
>>byEngi+WK
>Of course Russia has its excuses, like "it is hard", but dude! [...] With all this land, all these resources, all this human capital ...

let me tell you a story. In 1996 a Dutch farmer came to Russia to farm potatoes. His plan seemed flawless - availability of a lot of cheap good for potatoes land plus his skills. He rented the land, planted and tended the potatoes on it. By the harvest time his potential harvest seemed very great. Almost miraculously great - like several times compare to the potential harvest from the nearby fields of the Russian individual farms and remnants of collective farms. And his potatoes were just better in size/shape and overall quality. Well, people from nearby villages and towns started to come to his fields en mass and harvest the potatoes for themselves. Including local police people coming and loading the potatoes into their official police SUVs :) A Russian national TV crew came and filmed a story about it right during daytime :) I'd say that was a Russian specific "force major" the farmer failed to plan for :)

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