zlacker

>>colone+(OP)
When a currency is devaluating but interest rates are low, the banks can borrow at low rate, sell rubles for dollars into sliding market, wait for ruble to slide more, then repay the loan with cheaper rubles and make a big profit. The trouble is they also accelerate the slide, courtesy of the low rates. The central bank rate increase was likely done to head off that particular danger. Of course there are many other factors pressing the ruble down as well, which central bank can't control, but at least they are trying to prevent worseing the situation with their own hands.

Long term high interest rates plus high cost of import supplies will likely strangle the economy though. Increased demand for domestic goods due to higher import prices is a good thing, but one needs capital to operate most businesses. When interest rates are high you can't borrow, and when political situation is flaky fewer people will want to buy equity.

>>DenisM+ab
at 17% the interest rate paid by the RUB shorts amounts to 0.046% per day, whereas just today trough to peak USDRUB moved 35%. In this environment unless you "do a Sweden/Slovakia" and ramp rates to 1000% by preventing offshore banks from funding onshore (a form of capital controls), a measly 600bps hike is meaningless.

>>vegabo+Ob
USBRUB moving 3500bps today tells us volatility is high. It does not indicate that we can expect an average move of 460 bps per day going forward. Carry trades perform horribly amidst increasing or ambiguous volatility. Their leveraged structures make sharp adverse swings game overs.

>>JumpCr+vc
sure - but we're talking RUB specs who are in it for a 5 day move. Nobody is expecting annualized vol of 566% (35% * sqrt(262)). RUB has been moving several chunky percentages daily for 2 weeks at least, and is down 50% against the dollar 3 months. 17% annualized doesn't make an iota of difference in that kind of market.

Where it does make a difference is that long end bonds (OFZ 28s) are now yielding 15%. That's 15% for 13 years ;) Chunky yield in the long end. That will tempt the long term investors in (IF big if, they don't impose controls). Care to catch the falling knife?

>>vegabo+pd
Can you elaborate on the impact of capital controls? Are bond investors not able to trade out of their positions?