zlacker

[return to "2025: The Year in LLMs"]
1. ksec+RD[view] [source] 2026-01-01 07:40:29
>>simonw+(OP)
All these improvement in a single year, 2025. While this may seem obvious to those who follows along the AI / LLM news. It may be worth pointing out again ChatGPT was introduced to us in November 2022.

I still dont believe AGI, ASI or Whatever AI will take over human in short period of time say 10 - 20 years. But it is hard to argue against the value of current AI, which many of the vocal critics on HN seems to have the opinion of. People are willing to pay $200 per month, and it is getting $1B dollar runway already.

Being more of a Hardware person, the most interesting part to me is the funding of all the developments of latest hardware. I know this is another topic HN hate because of the DRAM and NAND pricing issue. But it is exciting to see this from a long term view where the pricing are short term pain. Right now the industry is asking, we have together over a trillion dollar to spend on Capex over the next few years and will even borrow more if it needs to be, when can you ship us 16A / 14A / 10A and 8A or 5A, LPDDR6, Higher Capacity DRAM at lower power usage, better packaging, higher speed PCIe or a jump to optical interconnect? Every single part of the hardware stack are being fused with money and demand. The last time we have this was Post-PC / Smartphone era which drove the hardware industry forward for 10 - 15 years. The current AI can at least push hardware for another 5 - 6 years while pulling forward tech that was initially 8 - 10 years away.

I so wished I brought some Nvidia stock. Again, I guess no one knew AI would be as big as it is today, and it is only just started.

◧◩
2. pjc50+XM[view] [source] 2026-01-01 09:39:03
>>ksec+RD
Investing a trillion dollars for a revenue of a billion dollars doesn't sound great yet.
◧◩◪
3. steveB+Fc1[view] [source] 2026-01-01 14:11:55
>>pjc50+XM
Indeed, its the old Uber playbook at nearly two extra orders of magnitude.

It is a large enough number to simply run out of private capital to consume before it turns cash flow positive.

Lots of things sell well if sold at such a loss. I’d take a new Ferrari for $2500 if it was on offer.

◧◩◪◨
4. pjc50+AY1[view] [source] 2026-01-01 19:34:11
>>steveB+Fc1
Did Uber actually do a lot of capital investment? They don't own the cars, for example.
◧◩◪◨⬒
5. simonw+y12[view] [source] 2026-01-01 19:55:45
>>pjc50+AY1
I believe they spent a huge amount of money on incentives to help sign up drivers, and discounts to help attract customers.
◧◩◪◨⬒⬓
6. pjc50+zK2[view] [source] 2026-01-02 01:08:16
>>simonw+y12
Yes, but that's loss leader rather than capital investment. You can't put a customer on the balance sheet and depreciate them. Once you've paid for a free ride, you own nothing tangible.
[go to top]