But LLM is certainly a game changer, I can see it delivering impact bigger than the internet itself. Both require a lot of investments.
I find LLMs incredibly useful, but if you were following along the last few years the promise was for “exponential progress” with a teaser world destroying super intelligence.
We objectively are not on that path. There is no “coming of LLMs”. We might get some incremental improvement, but we’re very clearly seeing sigmoid progress.
I can’t speak for everyone, but I’m tired of hyperbolic rants that are unquestionably not justified (the nice thing about exponential progress is you don’t need to argue about it)
I've been following for many years and the main exponential thing has been the Moore's law like growth in compute. Compute per dollar is probably the best tracking one and has done a steady doubling every couple of years or so for decades. It's exponential but quite a leisurely exponential.
The recent hype of the last couple of years is more dot com bubble like and going ahead of trend but will quite likely drop back.