zlacker

>>simonw+(OP)
I'm curious how all of the progress will be seen if it does indeed result in mass unemployment (but not eradication) of professional software engineers.

>>websit+nc
My prediction: If we can successfully get rid of most software engineers, we can get rid of most knowledge work. Given the state of robotics, manual labor is likely to outlive intellectual labor.

>>ori_b+Pd
"Given the state of robotics" reminds me a lot of what was said about llms and image/video models over the past 3 years. Considering how much llms improved, how long can robotics be in this state?

I have to think 3 years from now we will be having the same conversation about robots doing real physical labor.

"This is the worst they will ever be" feels more apt.

>>bearde+Bf
Robotics is coming FAST. Faster than LLM progress in my opinion.

>>Davidz+4n
The question is how rapid the adoption is. The price of failure in the real world is much higher ($$$, environmental, physical risks) vs just "rebuild/regenerate" in the digital realm.

>>throw1+DQ
Military adoption is probably a decent proxy indicator - and they are ready to hand the kill switch to autonomous robots

>>bearde+Ls1
Maybe. There the cost of failure again is low. Its easier to destroy than to create. Economic disruption to workers will take a bit longer I think.

Don't get me wrong; I hope that we do see it in physical work as well. There is more value to society there; and consists of work that is risky and/or hard to do - and is usually needed (food, shelter, etc). It also means that the disruption is an "everyone" problem rather than something that just affects those "intellectual" types.