zlacker

>>karako+(OP)
I expect China will pick up the slack.

>>amanap+U6
Certainly but US policy changes every 4 years and China has a gigantic one child policy issue which just can't be changed. I think it will with China somewhat similar how it was back in the day with the udssr where economists were predicting its economy would outgrow the economy of the USA by 1994 and then 1991 or so it died. Could imagine something similar might be awaiting china

>>YJfcbo+J7
China no longer has a one-child policy and is now actively focusing policies and incentives on increasing childbirth. Although it’s not going to yield immediate results, the PRC operates on long time horizons and will probably succeed long-term in raising birth rates.

>>nneonn+7a
> the PRC operates on long time horizons and will probably succeed long-term in raising birth rates.

That would make them the first country to do so, I think. Others have tried and nothing has worked. But China will likely become rich before it gets old, so it may not matter.

>>Pessim+Eb
Did you mean to say "But China will likely become old before it gets rich"?

Their population is declining already and they have a very long way to go before being considered "rich", so I haven't seen many projections for what you said. If you meant it, I'd be curious to know why.

>>bpt3+Ge
China's middle class is already larger than the entire US population, and growing fast. It won't be rich in the sense that say Switzerland or Norway are rich. But it seems safe to say they won't be barely scraping by.

IMO, India likely won't make this transition. It's population is still growing but it's birth rate is sinking fast (like most everywhere else).