zlacker

>>glimsh+(OP)
State and local govs soaking up workers (~70k). Good numbers assuming labor force stays balanced with retirements + deaths + job growth outpacing job destruction/loss.

>>toomuc+L1
How is it good numbers when they're not creating capital, in fact they're consuming capital? Government isn't an engine for economic growth and innovation. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs are down - that's important because that's how you create capital. In essence, our ability to create capital has decreased while at the same time our demand for capital, in the form of taxes, has increased. This is not good.

>>taylod+t5
Services provided by government enable civilization, capital growth and accumulation would enable what? Not much benefit to the citizenry based on the evidence. Manufacturing will continue to be automated as much as possible, further investment in manufacturing will not create material job count. Capital creation is a poor metric for potential and citizen quality of life. Jobs that enable people to survive are needed jobs to get them from working age to retirement age (or help them survive while in retirement until death).

Growth is over due to demographics, folks should make peace with that, most especially capitalists. Inflation and taxes will eventually go up, and profits will go down.

https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-dep...

https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/spring/summer-2018/demogra...

https://dunham.com/FA/Blog/Posts/demographics-are-destiny

https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf

https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe...

(demographics are destiny)

>>toomuc+g6
That's a different statement than claiming they are good numbers. We're shifting capital production to capital consumption. That's not a viable long-term strategy. Great, it solved their employment problem in June. Now what?

>>taylod+c9
We disagree on what good looks like, that's all. I care about humans, you care about capital. There is no long term strategy except a slow burn economically as populations rapidly age and decline over the next 100-150 years. Capital does not serve the human, broadly speaking, based on the evidence. It enslaves, always demanding more (4x productivity in growth in the last half century but 4 day work week is laughed at as unreasonable, for one example).

Figure out a strategy without growth and capitalism, because demographics will force it to happen. Also, importantly, be wise with the labor remaining looking forward; you'll never get it back at the scale previously had.

https://dunham.ghost.io/content/images/2024/04/2.JPG

https://rajawali.hks.harvard.edu/articles/a-rapidly-aging-wo...

(~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US)