zlacker

>>amrrs+(OP)
I think the intuition the authors are trying to capture is that they believe the models are omniscient, but also dim-witted. And the question they are collectively trying to ask is whether this will continue forever.

I've never seen this question quantified in a really compelling way, and while interesting, I'm not sure this PDF succeeds, at least not well-enough to silence dissent. I think AI maximalists will continue to think that the models are in fact getting less dim-witted, while the AI skeptics will continue to think these apparent gains are in fact entirely a biproduct of "increasing" "omniscience." The razor will have to be a lot sharper before people start moving between these groups.

But, anyway, it's still an important question to ask, because omniscient-yet-dim-witted models terminate at "superhumanly assistive" rather than "Artificial Superintelligence", which in turn economically means "another bite at the SaaS apple" instead of "phase shift in the economy." So I hope the authors will eventually succeed.

>>antics+4Q
There is no reason that omniscient-yet-dim-witted has to plateau at human intelligence.

>>sitkac+MQ
I am not sure if you mean this to refute something in what I've written but to be clear I am not arguing for or against what the authors think. I'm trying to state why I think there is a disconnect between them and more optimistic groups that work on AI.

>>antics+iS
I think that commenter was disagreeing with this line:

> because omniscient-yet-dim-witted models terminate at "superhumanly assistive"

It might be that with dim wits + enough brute force (knowledge, parallelism, trial-and-error, specialisation, speed) models could still substitute for humans and transform the economy in short order.

>>drodge+NS
Sorry, I can't edit it any more, but what I was trying to say is that if the authors are correct, that this distinction is philosophically meaningful, then that is the conclusion. If they are not correct, then all their papers on this subject are basically meaningless.