zlacker

>>tablet+(OP)
Let's just imagine we're critiquing cars or planes in about 1910. They're so flawed. No one can say with certainty whether or how they will improve.

Side note of interest, from Wikipedia: "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly" is an editorial published in the New York Times on October 9, 1903. The article incorrectly predicted it would take one to ten million years for humanity to develop an operating flying machine.

>>SKILNE+O21
Conversely, imagine we're someone talking about colonising the moon in 1969.

>>sudden+751
I think we have heated debate because most people don't explain what's their `cost function`. For someone when they talk about AI they take a binary reasoning that if something is not perfect today then it will never be perfect or will never improve. For other is just they see something is useful today and know it will get better next year and don't have expectation of getting AGI.

In your reply it's equivalent of someone expecting AGI in next decade. The same is when people talk about if AI will take software dev jobs. Some just see all the flows in AI and they know they job is secure. Some other see that they are 2x productive and potentially your team mate not needed anymore. If AI can eliminate 50% of IT jobs in ~10-20 years then thats still job replacement. When we replaced horses with cars that doesn't mean we have no horses today or that nobody ride horses.