So far in my experience watching small to medium sized companies try to use it for real work, it has been occasionally useful for exploring apis, odd bits of knowledge etc, but overall wasted more time than it has saved. I see very few signs of progress.
The time has come for llm users to put up or shut up - if it’s so great, stop telling us and show and use the code it generated on its own.
I think what's happening is two groups using "productivity" to mean completely different things: "I can implement 5x more code changes" vs "I generate 5x more business value." Both experiences are real, but they're not the same thing.
https://peoplesgrocers.com/en/writing/ai-productivity-parado...
On the flip side, it has allowed me to accomplish many lower-complexity backlog projects that I just wouldn’t have even attempted before. It expands productivity on the low end.
I’ve also used it many times to take on quality-of-life tasks that just would have been skipped before (like wrapping utility scripts in a helpful, documented command-line tool).