Computer science was an immensely fun subject to learn. I moved to one of the big cities and was bewildered with how much there was to learn, and loved every second of it. I gradually became good enough to help anyone with almost anything, and spent lots of my free time digging deeper and learning.
I liked CS and programming - but I did not like products built by the companies where I was good enough to be employed. These were just unfortunate annoyances that allowed me to work close enough to what I actually enjoyed, which was just code, and the computer.
Before LLMs, those like me could find a place within most companies - the person you don't go to for fast features, but for weird bugs or other things that the more product-minded people weren't interested in. There was still, however, an uncomfortable tension. And now that tension is even greater. I do not use an LLM to write all my code, because I enjoy doing things myself. If I do not have that joy, then it will be immensely difficult for me to continue the career I have already invested so much time in. If I could go back in time and choose another field I would - but since that's not possible, I don't understand why it's so hard for people to have empathy for people like me. I would never have gone down this path if I knew that one day, my hard-earned-knowledge would become so much less valuable, and I'd be forced to delegate the only part of the job I enjoyed to the computer itself.
So Thomas, maybe your AI skeptic friends aren't nuts, they just have different priorities. I realize that my priorities are at odds for the companies I work for. I am just tightly gripping the last days that I can get by doing this job the way that I enjoy doing it.
But again, you're being honest. The problem with a lot of the AI skeptic arguments I see is a lack of this honesty. Others have noted that there are a lot of contradictory skeptical arguments, and I suspect the contradictions come because the authors have negative emotions about AI which they're using to create negative arguments.