There are still significant limitations, no amount of prompting will get current models to approach abstraction and architecture the way a person does. But I'm finding that these Gemini models are finally able to replace searches and stackoverflow for a lot of my day-to-day programming.
I find this sentiment increasingly worrisome. It's entirely clear that every last human will be beaten on code design in the upcoming years (I am not going to argue if it's 1 or 5 years away, who cares?)
I wished people would just stop holding on to what amounts to nothing, and think and talk more about what can be done in a new world. We need good ideas and I think this could be a place to advance them.
Citation needed. In fact, I think this pretty clearly hits the "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" bar.
Here someone just claimed that it is "entirely clear" LLMs will become super-human, without any evidence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_e...
The way you've framed it seems like the only evidence you will accept is after it's actually happened.
In my mind, at this point we either need (a) some previously "hidden" super-massive source of training data, or (b) another architectural breakthrough. Without either, this is a game of optimization, and the scaling curves are going to plateau really fast.
a) it hasn't even been a year since the last big breakthrough, the reasoning models like o3 only came out in September, and we don't know how far those will go yet. I'd wait a second before assuming the low-hanging fruit is done.
b) I think coding is a really good environment for agents / reinforcement learning. Rather than requiring a continual supply of new training data, we give the model coding tasks to execute (writing / maintaining / modifying) and then test its code for correctness. We could for example take the entire history of a code-base and just give the model its changing unit + integration tests to implement. My hunch (with no extraordinary evidence) is that this is how coding agents start to nail some of the higher-level abilities.