zlacker

>>Tenoke+(OP)
ACT post where Scott Alexander provides some additional info: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027.

Manifold currently predicts 30%: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/ai-2027-reports-predictio...

>>Jun8+IQ
47% now soo a coin toss

>>crazys+hS
Note the market resolves by:

> Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes.

So you should really read it as “Will >30% of Manifold moderators in 2027 think the ‘predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point’?”

>>elicks+n21
That’s a misreading of the phrase “proportion of YES votes”. If 30% of judges vote YES, then only 30% – not 100% – of the prediction’s market cap is awarded to those who bet YES. The remaining 70% of the market cap is awarded to those who bet NO.

The market correctly rewards those who bet NO in such a case. Therefore, bettors have no reason to bet YES if they really think NO.