zlacker

>>Tenoke+(OP)
It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here.

The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corporations”, and voila, you have a story about the climate crisis and regulatory capture). We should be solving these problems before AGI or job-replacing AI becomes commonplace, lest we run the very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction.

The point of these stories is to incite alarm, because they’re trying to provoke proactive responses while time is on our side, instead of trusting self-interested individuals in times of great crisis.

>>stego-+LK1
You said it right, science fiction. Honestly is exactly the tenor I would expect from the AI hype: this text is completely bereft of any rigour while being dressed up in scientific language. There's no evidence, nothing to support their conclusions, no explanation based on data or facts or supporting evidence. It's purely vibes based. Their promise is unironically "the CEOs of AI companies say AGI is 3 years away"! But it's somehow presented as this self important study! Laughable.

But it's par on course. Write prompts for LLMs to compete? It's prompt engineering. Tell LLMs to explain their "reasoning" (lol)? It's Deep Research Chain Of Thought. Etc.

>>andrep+JC2
Did you see the supplemental material that explains how they arrived at their timelines/capabilities forecasts? https://ai-2027.com/research

>>somebo+Ti3
It's not at all clear that performance rises with compute in a linear way, which is what they seem to be predicting. GPT-4.5 isn't really that much smarter than 2023's GPT-4, nor is it at all smarter than DeepSeek.

There might be (strongly) diminishing returns past a certain point.

Most of the growth in AI capabilities has to do with improving the interface and giving them more flexibility. For e.g., uploading PDFs. Further: OpenAI's "deep research" which can browse the web for an hour and summarize publicly-available papers and studies for you. If you ask questions about those studies, though, it's hardly smarter than GPT-4. And it makes a lot of mistakes. It's like a goofy but earnest and hard-working intern.