>>Tenoke+(OP)
Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT)
>>beklei+hd
I think it's not holding up that well outside of predictions about AI research itself. In particular, he makes a lot of predictions about AI impact on persuasion, propaganda, the information environment, etc that have not happened.
>>samth+4Q
Could you give some specific examples of things you feel definitely did not come to pass? Because I see a lot of people here talking about how the article missed the mark on propaganda; meanwhile I can tab over to twitter and see a substantial portion of the comment section of every high-engagement tweet being accused of being Russia-run LLM propaganda bots.