zlacker

>>tedsan+(OP)
I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure it out in the next 4 years...

I don't know how to make sense of this level of investment. I feel that I lack the proper conceptual framework to make sense of the purchasing power of half a trillion USD in this context.

>>TheAce+9g
"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're all wrong, or everything is about to change." - Vedant Misra, Deepmind Researcher.

Maybe your calibration isn't poor. Maybe they really are all wrong but there's a tendency here to these these people behind the scenes are all charlatans, fueling hype without equal substance hoping to make a quick buck before it all comes crashing down, but i don't think that's true at all. I think these people really genuinely believe they're going to get there. And if you genuinely think that, them this kind of investment isn't so crazy.

>>famous+Qv
I am hoping it is just the usual ponzi thing.

>>nejsjs+Ry1
How would this be a Ponzi scheme? Who are the leaf nodes ending up holding the bag?

>>ajmurm+A62
Investors, mostly private - eg. SoftBank and all the other deep pockets funneling money into this - but also public, because lots of people are invested in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, who will be directly affected if the bubble bursts, and just everyone invested in the markets generally, as this bubble bursting would already probably be more broadly damaging than even the dot com bust was.

Personally, I do expect a big correction at some point, even if it never reaches the point of bubble bursting. But I have no idea when I expect it to happen, so this isn't, like, an investable thesis.

>>sander+ba2
So unlike with a regular Ponzi scheme most of the money just is wasted?

>>ajmurm+hc2
Well Madoff funnelled it into lifestyle.

Technically you are correct. A ponzi is a single entity paying returns from new marks. It is a straight con.

But some systems can be ponzi-like in that they require more and more investment and people get rich by selling into that. Bitcoin is an example.