That said, this does look like dreadful policy at the first headline. There is a lot of money going in to AI, adding more money from the US taxpayer is gratuitous. Although in the spirit of mixing praise and condemnation, if this is the worst policy out of Trump Admin II then it'll be the best US administration seen in my lifetime. Generally the low points are much lower.
Did we see the same fallout from the space-race from a couple generations ago?
I don't think so — certainly not in the way you're framing it. So I guess I don't accept your proposition as a guarantee of what will happen.
The spoils of the space race would have gone to someone a lot like Musk. Or Ellison. Or Masayoshi Son. Or Sam Altman. Or the much worse old-moneyed types. The US space program was, famously, literally employing ex-Nazis. I doubt the beneficiaries of the money had particularly clean hands either