zlacker

>>tedsan+(OP)
Apart from my general queasiness about the whole AGI scaling business and the power concentration that comes with it, these are the exact four people/entities that I would not want to be at the tip of said power concentration.

>>mppm+821
What do you prefer ? Letting DeepSeek and China lead the AI war ? DeepSeek R1 is a big wake up call https://open.substack.com/pub/transitions/p/deepseek-is-comi...

>>fsndz+Yi1
From what I've read about DeepSeek and its founder, I would very much prefer them, even with China factored in. At least if these particular Four Horsemen are the only alternative.

On a tangential note, those who wish to frame this as the start of the great AI war with China (in which they regrettably may be right), should seriously consider the possibility of coming out on the losing end. China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think.

>>mppm+eq1
>China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think.

So those who framing this are correct and that we should matching their momentum here asap?

>>corima+Ct1
No, I was rather pointing out that getting into an altercation that you are likely (even if not guaranteed) to lose may not be the smartest of ideas. On occasion, humans have been known to fruitfully engage in cooperation and de-escalation. Please pardon my naive optimism.

>>mppm+Su1
"Great AI war with China", "altercation" are excessively harsh characterizations. There is nothing "escalatory" in competing for leadership in new industries with other states, nor should it be "regrettable". No one, to my knowledge, is planning to nuke DeepSeek data centers or something.

>>lII1lI+Tv1
I wish I could agree with you. But have you read Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" [1]? I am very much afraid that the big decision makers in AI do in fact think in those terms, and do not in any way frame this as fair competition for the benefit of all.

1. https://situational-awareness.ai/

>>mppm+Rw1
A person heavily invested in this wave of AI succeeding saying AI will be big and we will have AGI next year? Sure.

I don't think there is much point of reading the whole thing after the following:

"Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them. Nvidia analysts still think 2024 might be close to the peak. Mainstream pundits are stuck on the willful blindness of “it’s just predicting the next word”."