zlacker

>>campus+(OP)
China's manufactures finding the winners. This is the system working as intended - create many producers in xyz sector via subsidies, hardcore (involution) competition from 1000s in different provinces innovate manufacturing to bare margins, losers go out of business/ get bought up by better competitors and consolidate like _intended_ outcome of other PRC industrial policy. TLDR Set up competitive environment to force producers speed run to a $250 model-T while everyone else could only make cars for $1000. Have so much competition to force manufactures to improve processes/drive down prices/affordability in short time and then settle with a few large but sustainable survivors that are globally competitive / can (out)compete with western incumbents.

>>maxglu+7c
Still doesn't work.

1.) Internal consumer demand for China has collapsed, due to real estate debt overhang, local government debt overhang, increasing job loss, and incoming and increasing college graduates. It's estimated that 80% of this year's current graduates are jobless.

2.) External demand for China has been decreasing, 3.5T total export in 2022, only 3.3T in 2023. probably below 3T this year. Due to geopolitical factors such as China allying with Russia, and increasing tariffs from every other country due to overproduction/overexport from China.

3.) EV (at 36B in 2023) is only 1% of value of all Chinese export (3.7T). Not going to rescue the Chinese economy at all. On top of that, only BYD is capable/making some profit, while every other Chinese EV is going to shut down in the next 5 years.