zlacker

>>fnbr+(OP)
Extra respect is due to Jan Leike, then:

https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498174659715494

>>thorum+Bu
Reading that thread it’s really interesting to me. I see how far we’ve come in a short couple of years. But I still can’t grasp how we’ll achieve AGI within any reasonable amount of time. It just seems like we’re missing some really critical… something…

Idk. Folks much smarter than I seem worried so maybe I should be too but it just seems like such a long shot.

>>adamta+dH
When it comes to AI, as a rule, you should assume that whatever has been made public by a company like OpenAI is AT LEAST 6 months behind what they’ve accomplished internally. At least.

So yes, the insiders very likely know a thing or two that the rest of us don’t.

>>jay-ba+FH
But you also have to remember that the pursuit of AGI is a vital story behind things like fundraising, hiring, influencing politicians, being able to leave and raise large amounts of money for your next endeavor, etc.

If you've been working on AI, you've seen everything go up and to the right for a while - who really benefits from pointing out that a slowdown is occurring? Who is incentivized to talk about how the benefits from scaling are slowing down or the publicly available internet-scale corpuses are running out? Not anyone who trains models and needs compute, I can tell you that much. And not anyone who has a financial interest in these companies either.