I have to admit, of the four, Karpathy and Sutskever were the two I was most impressed with. I hope he goes on to do something great.
When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.
E.g. Oppenheimer’s team created the bomb, then following experts finetuned the subsequent weapon systems and payload designs. Etc.
So, if you want to meet with someone, instead of opening you calendar app and looking for an opening, you'd ask your AGI assistant to talk to their AGI assistant and set up a 1h meeting soon. Or, instead of going on Google to find plane tickets, you'd ask you AGI assistant to find the most reasonable tickets for a certain date range.
This would not require any special intelligence more advanced than a human's, but it does require a very general understanding of the human world that is miles beyond what LLMs can achieve today.
Going only slightly further with assumptions about how smart an AGI would be, it could revolutionize education, at any level, by acting as a true personalized tutor for a single student, or even for a small group of students. The single biggest problem in education is that it's impossible to scale the highest quality education - and an AGI with capabilities similar to a college professor would entirely solve that.
I'm at the European AI Conference for our startup tomorrow, and they use a platform that just booked me 3 meetings automatically with other people there based on our availability... It's not rocket science.
And you don't even need those narrow tools. You could easily ask GPT-4o (or lesser versions) something along the lines of :
> "you're going to interact with another AI assistant to book meetings for me: [here would be the details about the meeting]. Come up with a protocol that you'll send to the other assistant so it can understand what the meetings are about, communicate you their availability, etc. I want you to come up with the entire protocol, send it, and communicate with the other assistant end-to-end. I won't be available to provide any more context ; I just want the meeting to be booked. Go."
And getting it to actually buy stuff like plane tickets on your behalf would be entirely crazy.
Sure, it can be made to do some parts of this for very narrowly defined scenarios, like the specific platform of a single three day conference. But it's nowhere near good enough for dealing with the general case of the messy general world.
I had a (human) assistant in my previous business, super-smart MBA type, and by your definition she wasn't a general intelligence on the day of onboarding:
- she didn't have access to my email account or calendar
- she didn't know my usual lunch time hours
- she didn't have a company card yet.
All of those points you're raising are logistics, not intelligence.
Intelligence is "When trying to achieve a goal, can you conceive of a plan to get there despite adverse conditions, by understanding them and charting/reviewing a sequence of actions".
You can definitely be an intelligent entity without hands or tools.