zlacker

>>wavela+(OP)
Interesting, both Karpathy and Sutskever are gone from OpenAI now. Looks like it is now the Sam Altman and Greg Brockman show.

I have to admit, of the four, Karpathy and Sutskever were the two I was most impressed with. I hope he goes on to do something great.

>>zoogen+Ix
Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people.

When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

>>nabla9+pH
If we look at history of innovation and invention it’s very typical the original discovery and final productization are done by different people. For many reasons, but a lot of them are universal I would say.

E.g. Oppenheimer’s team created the bomb, then following experts finetuned the subsequent weapon systems and payload designs. Etc.

>>fsloth+O21
Except OpenAI hasn’t yet finished discovery on its true goal: AGI. I wonder if they risk plateauing at a local maximum.

>>fprog+I51
I'm genuinely curious: what do you expect an "AGI" system to be able to do that we can't do with today's technology?

>>Zambyt+hc1
Some first ideas coming to mind:

Engineering Level:

  Solve CO2 Levels
  End sickness/death
  Enhance cognition by integrating with willing minds.
  Safe and efficient interplanetary travel.
  Harness vastly higher levels of energy (solar, nuclear) for global benefit.

Science:

  Uncover deeper insights into the laws of nature.
  Explore fundamental mysteries like the simulation hypothesis, Riemann hypothesis, multiverse theory, and the existence of white holes.
  Effective SETI
 

Misc:

  End of violent conflicts
  Fair yet liberal resource allocation (if still needed), "from scarcity to abundance"

>>jagrsw+ae1
The problem with CO2 levels is that no one likes the solution not that we don't have one. I highly doubt adding AGI to the mix is going to magically make things better. If anything we'll just burn more CO2 providing all the compute resources it needs.

People want their suburban lifestyle with their red meat and their pick-up truck or SUV. They drive fuel inefficient vehicles long-distances to urban work environments and they seem to have very limited interest in changing that. People who like detached homes aren't suddenly affording the rare instances of that closer to their work. We burn lots of oil because we drive fuel inefficient vehicles long distances. This is a problem of changing human preferences which you just aren't going to solve with an AGI.

>>TimPC+FD1
Assuming embedded AI in every piece of robotics - sometimes directly, sometimes connected to a central server (this is doable even today) - it'll revolutionize industries: human-less mining, processing, manufacturing, services, and transportation. These factories would eventually produce and install enough solar power or build sufficient nuclear plants and energy infrastructure, making energy clean and free.

With abundant electric cars (at this future point in time) and clean electricity powering heating, transportation, and manufacturing, some AIs could be repurposed for CO2 capture.

It sounds deceptively easy, but from an engineering standpoint, it likely holds up. With free energy and AGI handling labor and thinking, we can achieve what a civilization could do and more (cause no individual incentives come into play).

However, human factors could be a problem: protests (luddites), wireheading, misuse of AI, and AI-induced catastrophes (alignment).

>>jagrsw+tP1
Having more energy is intrinsically dangerous, though, because it's indiscriminate: more energy cannot enable bigger solutions without also enabling bigger problems. Energy is the limiting factor to how much damage we can do. If we have way more of it, all bets are off. For instance, the current issue may be that we are indirectly cooking the planet through CO2 emissions, so capturing that sounds like a good idea. But even with clean energy, there is a point where we would cook the planet directly via waste heat of AI and gizmos and factories and whatever unforeseen crap we'll conjure just because we can. And given our track record I'm far from confident that we wouldn't do precisely that.