zlacker

>>wavela+(OP)
Interesting, both Karpathy and Sutskever are gone from OpenAI now. Looks like it is now the Sam Altman and Greg Brockman show.

I have to admit, of the four, Karpathy and Sutskever were the two I was most impressed with. I hope he goes on to do something great.

>>zoogen+Ix
Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people.

When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

>>nabla9+pH
I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

>>fnordp+SH
But is it even clear what is the next big leap after LLM? I have the feeling many tend to extrapolate the progress of AI from the last 2 years to the next 30 years but research doesn't always work like that (though improvements in computing power did).

>>cm2187+bN
Not saying it’s going to be the same, but I’m sure computing progress looked pretty unimpressive from, say, 1975 to 1990 for the uninitiated.

By the 90s they were still mainly used as fancy typewriters by “normal” people (my parents, school, etc) although the ridiculous potential was clear from day one.

It just took a looong time to go from pong to ping and then to living online. I’m still convinced even this stage is temporary and only a milestone on the way to bigger and better things. Computing and computational thought still has to percolate into all corners of society.

Again not saying “LLM’s” are the same, but AI in general will probably walk a similar path. It just takes a long time, think decades, not years.

Edit: wanted to mention The Mother of All Demos by Engelbart (1968), which to me looks like it captures all essential aspects of what distributed online computing can do. In a “low resolution”, of course.

>>huygen+JX
Computing progress from 78 to 90 was mind-blowing.

1978: the apple ][. 1mhz 8 bit microprocessor, 4kb of ram, monochrome all-,caps display.

1990:Mac IIci, 25mhz 32-bit CPU, 4MB ram, 640x480 color graphics and an easy to use GUI.

Ask any of us who used both of these at the time: it was really amazing.

>>dgacmu+Q21
They were amazing, and the progress was incredible, but both of those computers - while equally exciting and delightful to people who saw the potential - were met with ‘but what can I actually use it for?’ from the vast majority of the population.

By 1990 home computer use was still a niche interest. They were still toys, mainly. DTP, word processing and spreadsheets were a thing, but most people had little use for them - I had access to a Mac IIci with an ImageWriter dot matrix around that time and I remember nervously asking a teacher whether I would be allowed to submit a printed typed essay for a homework project - the idea that you could do all schoolwork on a computer was crazy talk. By then, tools like Mathematica existed but as a curiosity not an essential tool like modern maths workbooks are.

The internet is what changed everything.

>>jamesh+e51
> The internet is what changed everything.

Broadband. Dial-up was still too much of an annoyance, too expensive.

Once broadband was ubiquitous in the US and Europe, that's when the real explosion of computer usage happened.