Ilya
Jan Leike
William Saunders
Leopold Aschenbrenner
All gone
“I think AGI will probably be here by 2029, and could indeed arrive this year”
Kokotajlo too.
We are so fucked
I really, really doubt that transformers will become AGI. Maybe I am wrong, I am no expert in this field, but I would love to understand the reasoning behind this "could arrive this year", because it reminds me about coldfusion :X
edit: maybe the term has changed again. AGI to me means truly understanding, maybe even some kind of consciousness, but not just probability... when I explain something, I have understood it. It's not that I have soaked up so many books that I can just use a probabilistic function to "guess" which word should come next.
A real AGI should be something you can drop in to a humanoid robot and it would basically live as an individual, learning from every moment and every day, growing and changing with time.
LLMs can’t even count the number of letters in a sentence.
It's a consequence of tokenization. They "see" the world through tokens, and tokenization rules depend on the specific middleware you're using. It's like making someone blind and then claiming they are not intelligent because they can't tell red from green. That's just how they perceive the world and tells nothing about intelligence.