zlacker

>>treebr+(OP)
Very interesting, especially the huge jump forward in the first figure and a possible majority of AI researchers giving >10% to the Human Extinction outcome.

To AI skeptics bristling at these numbers, I’ve got a potentially controversial question: what’s the difference between this and the scientific consensus on Climate Change? Why heed the latter and not the former?

>>bbor+D6
A climate forcing has a physical effect on the Earth system that you can model with primitive equations. It is not a social or economic problem (although removing the forcing is).

You might as well roll a ball down an incline and then ask me whether Keynes was right.

>>lainga+E7
I would think any scenario where humans actually go extinct (as opposed to just civilization collapsing and the population plummeting, which would be terrible enough) has to involve a lot of social and economic modeling...