zlacker

>>treebr+(OP)
Very interesting, especially the huge jump forward in the first figure and a possible majority of AI researchers giving >10% to the Human Extinction outcome.

To AI skeptics bristling at these numbers, I’ve got a potentially controversial question: what’s the difference between this and the scientific consensus on Climate Change? Why heed the latter and not the former?

>>bbor+D6
A climate forcing has a physical effect on the Earth system that you can model with primitive equations. It is not a social or economic problem (although removing the forcing is).

You might as well roll a ball down an incline and then ask me whether Keynes was right.

>>lainga+E7
Wait I gotta defend my boy Keynes here. His predictions have been as nearly as well validated as predicting the outcome of a ball rolling down a plank. Just reading the first part of the General Theory correctly predicted the labor strikes in 2023. Keynes’ very clear predictions continue to hold up under empirical observation.