zlacker

>>davidb+(OP)
I have a theory.

Ilya has always seemed like he was idealistic and I’m guessing that he was the reason for OpenAI’s very strange structure. Ilya is the man when it comes to AI so people put up with his foolishness. Adam D'Angelo is, like Ilya, an amazing computer science talent who may have shared Ilya’s idealistic notions (in particular OpenAI is non-profit, unless forced to be capped profit and is categorically not in the business of making money or selling itself to MSFT or any entity). “Helen” and “Tasha” are comically out of their depth and are loony toons, and simply decided at some time ago to follow Ilya.

Sam got the call from MSFT to sell, MSFT really ponied up (300B ?). The inference costs for OpenAI are/were staggering and they needed to sell (or get a large influx of capital which was in the works). This ran counter to Ilya’s idealistic notions. Sam attempted to negotiate with Ilya and the loony toons, a vote was called and they lost, hard.

I think this tracks with all the data we have.

There are a couple of other scenarios that track given OpenAI’s comically poor board composition, but I think the one above is the most plausible.

If this did happen then OpenAI is in for a hard future. Imagine you worked at OpenAI and you just found out that your shares could have been worth a tremendous amount and now their future is, at best, uncertain. There will be some true believers who won;t care but many (most?) will be appalled.

Let this be a lesson, don’t have a wacky ownership structure and wacky board when you have the (perhaps) the most valuable product in the world.

>>GreedC+gf1
Here's a counter-proposal: If you think about it, can't this change actually benefit Microsoft? Sam has an extremely sharp product mind; ChatGPT was his baby, everything from DevDays, the LLM app store; OpenAI was building a product suite that people liked, and in doing so they were undeniably slowing down their ability to iterate into better models and closer to AGI. Microsoft doesn't need OpenAI to build products. They're already doing that, and OpenAI was directly competing with their deployments of OpenAI's technology.

Microsoft needs OpenAI to make fundamental breakthroughs; that's the thing Microsoft spent money on, the technology. Their 49% investment probably won't directly pay off anyway, what with all the layers of corporate governance OpenAI has in place.

I don't want to go so far as to say that it was some grand conspiracy orchestrated by Satya and Ilya in a dark room one night, but their interests are pretty aligned; and that clip that keeps getting shared with Sam asking Satya on stage about their relationship with OpenAI, and Satya dry-laughing and failing to answer for a few seconds... why did Sam ask that? Its a really strange thing to ask on a stage like this. Why did Satya laugh, and take so long to answer? Just weird.