zlacker

>>Simon_+(OP)
How do people game this out, not just for Japan but for South Korea as well? With terminal or near terminal demographic collapse, I'm not sure what kind of nation will be left. I always assumed that international rules and the inertia of current policies would get them into an Alaska like state, where the people and the government have continuity from the current situation, but with not very many people. I think that might be too optimistic though.

>>Vecr+y2
IMO have to weather through cohorts of increased life expectancy due to modernity until their property/wealth transfers (especially in urban areas) gives newer gens more space to family plan. Older I get, the more people who previously didn't want kids due to material conditions lament wanting kids but still not having said conditions. Gut feeling is once enough density in East Asian countries drops from insufferable levels, TFR will pickup. Though might still not enough for replacement TFR, but perhaps settle at a more sustainable equilibrium.

e: over post limit

Equilbirium doesn't have to be current population level. maybe japan with 60m population and lower urban density to enable average house size increase from 1000 sqft to 2000 sqft + other interventions will get TFR closer to replacement @ 60M. Govs still going to have to pile on lots of carrots and sticks on top to make decisions swing towards 2 kid+ households. But it seems like most of Asia/Europe pop density + limited housing is one impediment to raising families.

>>dirtyi+U6
> Though might still not enough for replacement TFR, but perhaps settle at a more sustainable equilibrium.

Sustainable equilibrium is replacement TFR.