zlacker

>>davidb+(OP)
There is not a single shred of evidence we'll reach superintelligence any time soon. There's however a lot of evidence that regulation benefits incumbents.

You can do the math from there.

>>groby_+D7
What is the evidence you'd expect to see that you aren't seeing, and how many years in advance is too soon to make a plan?

>>mitthr+qa
Any development trajectory that doesn't look very suspiciously like a logistics curve is a good starter. (Pretty much all LLMs I've seen show an exponential increase in resources for a less-than linear increase in capability lately)

And if we want to make a plan, how about we don't ask the fox to guard the hen house?