I'm all about avoiding premature optimization, and its fine to start with a classic postgres. But please don't cling to that - if you see MVP success and you actually have a reasonable chance of getting to >1mill users (ie, a successful B2C product) please please dont wait to refactor your datastore to a more scalable solution. You will pay dearly if you wait too long. Absolutist advice serves noone well here - it really does depend on what your goals are as a company.
10+ years of dev work for a few hundred tables worries me a lot. My last conversion was about 20 years of data across a few hundred tables and we did two-way data synchronization across DB products with about 1 month of work, with 2 devs. We kept the sync running for over a year in production because we didn't want to force users over to the new system in a big hurry. We only stopped because the license on the old DB product finally expired and nobody wanted to pay for it anymore.
Nevermind the other aspect the pat advice doesn’t mention - managing a massive single RDMS is a goddamn nightmare. At a very large scale they are fragile, temperamental beasts. Backups, restores, upgrades all become hard. Migrations become a dark art , often taking down the db despite your best understanding. Errant queries stalling the whole server, tiny subtleties in index semantics doing the same. Yes it’s all solvable with a lot of skill, but it ain’t a free lunch that’s for sure. And tends to become a HUGE drag on innovation, as any change to the db becomes risky.
To your other point yes, replicating data “like for like” into another RDBMS can be cheap. But in my experience this domain data extraction is often taken as an opportunity to move it onto a non RDBMS data store that gives you specific advantages that match that domain, so you don’t have scaling problems again. That takes significantly longer. But yes I am perhaps unfairly including all the domain separation and “datastore flavor change” work in those numbers
I think this kind of anticipation was part of Pinterest's early success, for example. They got ahead of their database scaling early and were able to focus on the product and UX.