zlacker

>>hungle+(OP)
Not a few hours later, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. 17 hours to find the second floating sonar device. 17 hours to get caught with your pants down.

I'm saying this as former US military here. the Idea that in the middle of a OPORD, of any kind, POTUS would come in last minute and change a detail, like an explosive on a timer (fairly simple,) to what is effectively some new technology no one has ever heard of, that allows for remote sonar detonations is Tom Clancy stuff.

In the United States Military, there's this thing called the Chain of Command.

This exercise was under the U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa, which is under the United States European Command & United States Africa Command.

The "work" that being described here would have been under SOCOM (United States Special Operations Command), which is the only command that could do this kind of work, they are the only ones that even have the assets to do this kind of work and theres absolutely no mention of that in this piece.

It's complete conjecture and should absolutely be treated as such until theres hard evidence.

>>weathe+oI1
Since it was established that the destruction was caused by explosives, what is your argument?

The US is too competent to do such a bad job (17 hours apart and only 3 of 4 pipes destroyed)?

Does this imply we have a rogue actor or insufficiently equipped one to blame? Who?

>>oezi+JW1
He is right that sonar buoy detonation thing sounds like absolute bullshit. Incredibly risky and 17 hours.. I mean you want to do this, send a submarine, it fires few torpedoes. No more pipeline. Fast, simple, reliable.

Let's say I am a Ukranian patriot, with few million in the bank. I bet given few month I could put together a team of divers to plant some C4 with a simple timer and blow this thing to hell. Or Polish patriot, or Polish government or any of the Baltic states. It is an existential struggle for all of them, and russkie understand one thing and one thing only, this was a very clear communication straight to Putin.

>>tlear+V52
I think it’s the Polish. Apparently their relationship with Russia is similar to a very angry pitbull has with steak. They were mass rapes by the Soviets at the end of World War II and horrible conditions for the Polish during the Soviet empire.

Polish friends say there’s no shortage of young men who want the glory of blowing up something owned by the people who gang raped Grandma.

>>throwa+7c2
I can totally see it being the Polish, but I don't think there is a clear finger that points to anyone (including the US and Russia.) This does sound more plausible than the US. If the US did it, it would literally be done with support of other NATO allies (including Germany itself, and in secret.) It's simply too risky for them to end up destroying the entire NATO relationship, which they would not risk at this juncture...so it doesn't really make sense. Poland on the other hand, would still be a buffer between the rest of Europe and Russia even if Ukraine falls...so they have a lot less to lose, because no one is going to really punish them. I still feel it as -probably- Russia, but I don't think there is enough evidence, and it's very likely we'll just never know. The US theory to me is just logically bunk.