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[return to "U.S. public health agencies aren't ‘following the science,’ officials say"]
1. abeppu+1V[view] [source] 2022-07-15 00:33:56
>>themgt+(OP)
I'm not saying there _aren't_ problems with decision-making or guidance from our public health agencies, but this article uses really different standards for judging positions taken by those agencies than it does for any dissenting position, in a way that ends up being nonsensical.

Sure, let's critically evaluate the guidance put forward by our public health institutions, but quoting a statement from Norway's equivalent institution without the backing evidence doesn't make the US "wrong". If the evidence available on the efficacy of vaccines for kids is so ridiculously wide that it goes from -99% to +370% risk of infection, then surely Norway is _also_ drastically overstating its case when it says (about kids) "previous infection offers as good of protection as the vaccine against reinfection" esp since it _also_ seems like the protective effect of prior infection is both uncertain and changing.

How about flatly declaring that guidance was "wrong" about school closures because minority and poor kids did markedly worse at math? Obviously these decisions are complex trade-offs, and one can't conclude that the choice was "wrong" simply by pointing out one of the costs.

How about quoting a CDC scientist, who cannot possibly have strong evidence when making the prediction "CDC guidance worsened racial equity for generations to come. It failed this generation of children." Generations to come? Show us the data that lets this scientist predict the far future with such confidence.

I get that it's deeply unnerving when these institutions make sweeping recommendations based on less firm data than we would normally demand. But not recommending anything, or not taking decisive action because of the limited data would _also_ have been irresponsible. When schools first closed, we didn't know a lot of things, but it would have been pretty reckless if agencies said "well this is putting a lot of people in the hospital and spreading fast, but we don't have the data to give definitive guidance yet, so you're on your own. Depending on the range of things your communities choose, maybe in a few months we'll have the evidence to say something."

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2. rufus_+911[view] [source] 2022-07-15 01:17:34
>>abeppu+1V
No one ever admits they were wrong anymore. They just say "decisions are complex".

It's complicated.

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3. abeppu+h21[view] [source] 2022-07-15 01:27:00
>>rufus_+911
I think with complex policy questions, we have to draw finer distinctions than "were you wrong?"

- did you make a reasonable decision with the information available at the time, but later evidence showed that another decision would likely have had better outcomes?

- did you make a poor decision which missed or disregarded information available when you made the choice?

- did you make a choice which was appropriate for your declared aims at the time, but now priorities have changed?

These decisions _are_ complex. That doesn't mean we can't find fault and demand improvement. But I think it's not constructive to merely highlight the negative outcomes; we have to find better processes which would make smarter choices next time.

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4. darker+n51[view] [source] 2022-07-15 01:57:44
>>abeppu+h21
All of those outcomes should start with the admission that, you were wrong. Then you can start the discussion about why.
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