I predict that this will blow over, and won't be a big deal in a few years time once FOSS drivers for what is effectively just a new breed of TPM are released.
If in five years, it turns out I was wrong, I'll eat my hat. Although defining "my hat" by then might be difficult, as it'll probably be subscription based.
I realize it was only introduced as of ~2012 and it's been 10 years, but I'm not sure we can draw a conclusion on this one just yet. Windows 11 took a huge leap in that direction so for all I know it might take another decade; it certainly doesn't look like they've given up on the idea of locking down the desktop just yet.
seriously? 10 years is an eternity in tech, and if they really did lock down the desktop a few years from now with some new system (eg. pluton), I'm not really sure that you could say "I told you so" or "TPM caused the platform to be more locked down". It'd be like predicting some sort of smallpox attack by china in 2010, then claiming you got it right in 2020 because of corona. The only plausible scenario where you could plausibly blame TPM/UEFI is if OEMs suddenly decided to remove the ability to add user keys and/or disable secureboot.
Maybe if you're talking Java versions, but not in the desktop OS space. (Look at so many old machines running Windows 7 or earlier right now, and look at long old OSes are officially supported, and how long they're still used afterward.) And besides, even if it was, this wouldn't mean anything. Look at the whole Default Browser fiasco that happened in the last few months. Microsoft went back to engaging in practices they had already settled with the Justice Department two decades ago.
Also look at how they finally made Windows 11 64-bit-only. And even now it still runs 32-bit programs, just the OS is 64-bit. It took two decades after 64-bit CPUs came out to get to this point.
They take their time and meander, and it takes a while. Possibly due to corporate sluggishness, possibly due to wanting to boil the frog slowly, possibly due to wanting to test the waters for a while... who knows why. But speed isn't the main criterion.