Is it irrational that this makes me a little anxious about job security over the longterm? Idk why but this was my initial reaction when learning about this.
Given the scenario where copilot and its likes becomes used in a widespread manner. Can it be argued that this might improve productivity but stifle innovation?
Im pretty early in my career but the rate things are capable of changing soon doesn’t sit too well with me.
- Copilot is qualitatively different from the kinds of automation of programming we've seen before.
- It's barely version 1.0 of this kind of thing. Deep learning has been advancing incredibly for a decade and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Researchers also work on things like mathematical problem-solving, which would tie in to "real work" and not just the boilerplate.
- In past examples of AI going from subhuman to superhuman, e.g. chess and go, the practitioners did not expect to be overtaken just a few years after it had not even felt like real competition. You'd read quotes from them about the ineffability of human thought.
What to do personally, I don't know. Stay flexible?
Put it this way: in 5 years will there be an AI that's better than 90% of unassisted working programmers at solving new leetcode-type coding interview questions posed in natural language? Arranging an actual bet is too annoying, but that development in that timeframe doesn't seem unlikely. It might take more than a scaled-up GPT, but as I said, people are working on those other directions too.
In that future, already, the skills you get hired for are different from now (and not just in the COBOL-versus-C sense). Maybe different people with a quite different mix of talents are the ones doing well.