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[return to "Always Multiply Your Estimates by π (2013)"]
1. janto+6b[view] [source] 2021-09-27 06:58:30
>>behnam+(OP)
In my head I usually do "an order of magnitude" increase to do things properly. 1h to 1d to 1w to 1M to 1Y.

Thats kind of like a multiplier of τ=2π

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2. porb12+Ib[view] [source] 2021-09-27 07:04:43
>>janto+6b
....that's not an order of magnitude each time
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3. janto+ac[view] [source] 2021-09-27 07:08:13
>>porb12+Ib
a calendar "order of magnitude". I can't think of a better term.
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4. powers+Ic[view] [source] 2021-09-27 07:16:22
>>janto+ac
Perhaps “up a unit of measurement”?
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5. blueno+gq[view] [source] 2021-09-27 09:46:09
>>powers+Ic
This is what I was taught: double the estimate, and increase to the next unit. It was mostly as a joke, though.

The wise scheme, as has been pointed out, is to adjust predictions during a project. If the task that was initially planned to take a day is routinely taking 2 days (or 2 hours), adjust future plans accordingly.

Higher-level managers are sometimes unhappy with this scheme, while middle-level ones value the accuracy of such predictor-corrector schemes.

This gets us into a related topic of the depth of management structures, and I think the military scheme (of each person directing a roughly fixed number of persons, so the number of levels is proportional to the log of workforce size) might be worth considering.

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