zlacker

>>BellLa+(OP)
Check out this prescient article from 2017, when the ban was lifted:

Critics say these researchers risk creating a monster germ that could escape the lab and seed a pandemic...

Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist who directs the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard School of Public Health, called review panels “a small step forward.”

Recent disease-enhancing experiments, he said, “have given us some modest scientific knowledge and done almost nothing to improve our preparedness for pandemics, and yet risked creating an accidental pandemic.”

Therefore, he said, he hoped the panels would turn down such work.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/health/lethal-viruses-nih...

>>missin+H81
I don't want to diminish the work of "epidemiologist"'s but they aren't virologists. They're ultimately specialised statisticians and shouldn't have any say in how or what research is carried out.

>>teh_kl+wi1
Epidemiologists study the spread of diseases and their impact on communities. That's an important factor to consider when judging the potential impact of risky research, and it's not something virologists are trained in.

>>leeree+7j1
Sorry, but epidemiologists have no ability to make these predictions. Epidemiologists generally work in the field of "who, when, and where" based on historical data evidence.

>>teh_kl+Qj1
Mathematical disease modelling is also part of epidemiology. You may have seen their work discussed in the press early in the COVID epidemic when they predicted the possible death count and the likely impact of various interventions.

>>leeree+sk1
Well what were their predictions vs actual outcome?

>>teh_kl+ol1
Speaking from experience, last year we had an outbreak in Melbourne, Australia. The local government's response was guided by modelling from epidemiologists (and others), and went on to match the peak and length of the outbreak to the model's estimations almost down to the day[0].

[0]: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-29/coronavirus-melbourne...

>>diaton+3z1
They seem to be doing fairly well now, as well.