zlacker

>>alwill+(OP)
It's well known that local Chinese authorities silenced a doctor (Li Wenliang) who was giving early warnings about the virus. That to me is a more grave mistake than an accidental lab leak, because they lost a chance to nip it in the bud. Accidents happen and quick response is essential.

An intentional lab leak makes no sense to me at all. Its like starting a fire in your house to spite your neighbour.

>>dreen+w8
Possibilities:

1) Natural bat origin

2) Natural non-bat origin

3) Originated elsewhere (per above) and broke out in Wuhan

4) Unintentional lab leak of a natural strain

5) Unintentional lab leak from GoF research

6) Unintentional lab leak from bioweapons research

7) Intentionally released to by the CCP

8) Intentionally released by internal opponents of the CCP

9) Intentionally released by external opponents of China

10) ... and so on

I can come up with sensical (if not always likely) scenarios which fit all of those, and many more.

Most of the scenarios suggest we should be doing much more.

For example:

* If there was an unintentional lab leak of a strain in GoF research, China knows things about COVID19 we don't. They took extreme measures. It's reasonable to assume they might have had some reason.

* If this was a "test" of a bioweapon -- understand China's and the world's response -- it's worth treating as a dry run (note that this does not necessitate Chinese-run test)

* If this were a bioweapon, we should take long COVID very, very seriously, since the best bioweapons are designed to cripple rather than to kill.

What's odd to me is that, as far as I know, no one has compiled a list, evidence, or implications.