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[return to "The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins"]
1. tpfour+88[view] [source] 2021-06-04 00:27:52
>>codech+(OP)
Anybody who has ever worked in a wet lab, or a lab of any sort, knows that accidents happen. All the time. Things catch fire, things are dropped, labeling issues happen, anything you can think of.

I worked for many years in a lab, the accidental leak hypothesis was and still is what I consider the most probable. Calculate the joint probability of everything we know about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 happening and it should be obvious that the "lab leak" should be _thoroughly_ investigated before dismissing it.

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2. 542458+B8[view] [source] 2021-06-04 00:31:48
>>tpfour+88
What makes lab leak more probable than cross species transfer, something that happens all the time?
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3. tpfour+da[view] [source] 2021-06-04 00:47:29
>>542458+B8
It's the joint probability of everything we know.

p(Epidemic started in Wuhan) * p(origin in market right next to lab) * p(lab is one of 3 in the world to conduct gain-of-function research on conronaviruses) * p(lab scientists were notably sick prior to outbreak) * p(no accident ever happening in a lab) * p(et cetera) = very small number.

That's not evidence per se, but it does show you how probable a human error is.

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4. 542458+Fb[view] [source] 2021-06-04 01:03:14
>>tpfour+da
I can’t help but feel you’re taking all the “for” factors and none of the “against”, then bending the “for” factors even further.

Calling the market “right next to the lab” is a bit of a stretch - it’s a three and a half hour walk.

The scientists getting sick early doesn’t actually seem to be confirmed - there’s still debate in the US intelligence community whether it’s true. And going to the hospital because you’re sick means something a bit different in China where primary care is rare.

And as for “against”... no mention of the virus not matching any backbones in use for genetic experimentation, or the suboptimal binding to humans, both of which would suggest against engineering.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095063/

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5. tpfour+Xd[view] [source] 2021-06-04 01:26:41
>>542458+Fb
Let me make this clear: I don't know for certain what happened. But after updating my priors, I believe it's highly probable that the outbreak came from human error.

Also, I never once mentioned engineering. There's a lab 280m away from the market that has one of the largest bat virus samples in the world.

I would have no problem revising my priors, but for the moment I still consider the lab leak human error hypothesis still the most reasonable explanation.

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