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[return to "The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?"]
1. BillyT+Aw[view] [source] 2021-05-07 07:52:42
>>datafl+(OP)
the fact that this theory is still around after more than a year and not completely debunked is quite telling by itself. I thought this was a complete conspiracy theory last year, but the longer it sticks around the more likely it does become.
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2. altacc+TK[view] [source] 2021-05-07 10:25:18
>>BillyT+Aw
Debunking a theory doesn't make it disappear. Sometime it can do the opposite and reinforce the theory.

In this case there is no smoking gun either way and a natural origin is much harder to trace than lab origin. That lack of absolute certainty, which science is often comfortable working with, leaves room for alternative theories to circulate and attach to those who like the sound of them for various reasons. It is a common human flaw that being aware that an event could hypothetically occur can be mistaken for proof that event actually occurred.

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3. darker+KU[view] [source] 2021-05-07 12:02:01
>>altacc+TK
It can be rational to behave as if the event did occur if you don't know that it didn't.

Even if we're 50/50 on the source of the virus, maybe we should still ban or regulate GoF research, and consider banning or regulating some types of wet markets.

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4. altacc+EX[view] [source] 2021-05-07 12:26:49
>>darker+KU
No, it's not rational as then you're relying on the other side to prove a negative, which is an unreasonable reversal of burden of proof (e.g. Russell's teapot).

As to 50/50 being reason to take large scale regulatory action, would you accept this level of proof to enact any law? That seems a low bar to me.

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5. darker+241[view] [source] 2021-05-07 13:18:50
>>altacc+EX
If there's a 50/50 chance there is an intruder in your house, wouldn't you act as if there was?
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6. altacc+eb1[view] [source] 2021-05-07 14:02:39
>>darker+241
If it was 50% likely that people would break the speed limit when driving, should they be banned from driving? It's easy to make false equivalences all day long but it is of no benefit to anybody.
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7. triple+2V1[view] [source] 2021-05-07 18:00:38
>>altacc+eb1
If their breaking the speed limit would result in 3M human deaths plus the loss of 4% of the world's GDP with no offsetting benefit, then I think they probably should? So I agree that the equivalences aren't too helpful.

The point is that we should consider both the cost and the benefit of any regulation, in an expected value sense. Cars do kill people, but they also provide transportation that we've judged is worth that cost. But there's little indication that the WIV's (USA-funded!) risky research has delivered any significant benefit--the predicted coronavirus pandemic has indeed occurred, whatever the cause, and has anything from the WIV's work help us deal with that? On the other hand, even a small chance that their work caused this pandemic is a hugely negative expected value.

Long before the pandemic, there was obscure, academic debate over whether certain types of research with potential pandemic pathogens were worth the risk. Even with the evidence available at that time, I believe the 2014 ban was good, and its 2017 lifting was bad; but that debate now that takes on terrible new significance.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7097416/

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