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[return to "Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out"]
1. newacc+se[view] [source] 2021-04-09 14:58:34
>>todd8+(OP)
Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways.

Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There is nothing unique or notable about covid from the perspective of viral evolution. Period. So Occam says we go with the simplest theory.

Attempts to wave away that fact have nothing to do with science about what was happening in Wuhan and everything to do with modern political opinions about a government 1000km away in Beijing.

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2. gfodor+th[view] [source] 2021-04-09 15:13:18
>>newacc+se
Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to this one, because each side has different priors on which theory is actually the "simplest."

Given that, as far as I know, we don't have a single human case documented before those in Wuhan - something which a) should have been likely and b) China would be highly incentivized to root out since it would disprove the lab hypothesis, it implies patient zero was probably in Wuhan. If that's true, Occam could cut the other way, since the notion that case zero of a virus making a species transition would just so happen to occur in a city with a virology lab doing research on the same kind of viruses is a bit hard to believe.

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3. markha+8t5[view] [source] 2021-04-11 16:26:06
>>gfodor+th
there's no reason to think that case0 originated in Wuhan, so the lab coincidence is pretty weak. Wuhan is a big city with lots of travelers.

It would be nice to have a well-documented index case, but also quite unreasonable given what we know about asymptomatic spreading.

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