zlacker

>>ruarai+(OP)
The cause of this virus while concerning. Is nothing to the hysteria created from this virus, remember how this virus was branded at the start. Basically brave yourself for death, a interesting study is to look at news articles over time.

Its an example of bait and switch. This virus is not something that should have gained this much attention.

A bayesian inference shows that death when looking at a age stratification chart, who died compared with how many were expected to die in this cohort vs how many where expected to die were it a average flu outbreak in that same population.

I was building a model for local hospitals, with information back in march 2020. I grew disheartened when I realised that this killer virus was hardly more deadly than a bad flu year.

That brings up the excess deaths, why is it so high? Its hard to find good numbers in this, especially when you apply related increase in violent crime in 2020. Murders increases by 40% in NYC for example. More needs to be done to look into these numbers.

The death rate in all countries is died with, nor from. For example the UK lists all deaths who died within 30 days if a positive reading as a covid death. So to get the true numbers you need to apply a bayes model to see what we should have seen in a normal year.

A person over 70 has a 10% change if dying each year.

So if a virus that had no affect but turned your hair green killed 10% of people in an aged care home this would be branded as a deadly virus. Because of collerlation.

Now this virus kills much more than 10%, flu outbreaks have been reported to kill 12-16% of people in aged care homes. Covid is still more however.

I am now rambling, I have not squared the circle just yet. I still don't understand the hysteria, but it reminds me of post 9/11. Where people were acting crazy and full of anger.

I don't know what comes next, but I can tell you it won't be logical.

>>godmod+5H2
Did your modeling take into account impacts on life due to lingering health issues for those that became seriously ill but did not die?

>>jmspri+lH2
This was not known in march 2020, so no.

How can one even quantity that information?

>>godmod+7J2
This is the most details study of long term affects. 6months vs other studies at 3 months.

Nice study.

But it didn't show where these people were from looks like hospital inpatients in the first Wuhan cluster.

Also I would like to see their results compared to non covid positive of the same age.

A member of my family got swine flu in 2009/10 they had very adverse health affects for three years after. So its not uncommon to have long term affects from flu like illnesses

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...