zlacker

>>delbar+(OP)
The Chimera section claims:

> Pangolins and bats don't usually cohabitate, making this somewhat unlikely in nature.

Horseshoe bats are nocturnal animals that roost in caves during the day but sometimes practice perch feeding at night [1]:

> The other strategy is known as perch feeding: Individuals roost on feeding perches and wait for prey to fly past, then fly out to capture it.

Pangolins [2] and palm civets [3] are nocturnal and arboreal. The bat viral RNA sequences come from anal swabs of netted animals so they are primarily gastrointestinal infections. All of these animals are found in the Lancang/Mekong [4] catch basin. Bat guano seems like a good vector for the virus.

Gain-of-function experiments require two viral isolates that recombine during passage. The lab theory assumes that the RNA sequence of the original viral isolates were never shared. I find this scenario unlikely but I am open to changing my mind based on evidence. SARS-1 is evidence of a very similar zoonotic scenario.

Humans that encounter bat guano in this region also seem like a good host for a recombination event.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_bat#Diet_and_foragin...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin#Behavior

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_palm_civet#Feeding_and_d...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mekong

>>sradma+dt
The official position is that the start of this pandemic was in 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market' in Wuhan. [0]

So are you proposing that a pangolin from Lancang was transported more than 2000km to a seafood wetmarket in Wuhan?

At face value, this sounds like a very unlikely scenario for a zoonotic event/origin.

[0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/04/coronavir...

>>DoingI+BH
Given that apparently the virus was outside China in early December already, is it possible that Wuhan was simply the first fast-spreading location rather than the place where the transmission happened? If the virus was in Milan’s sewers in December, it feels that it might as swell have started spreading there first.

Likewise, Italy contained the virus from May to September, then it exploded again. Nothing particularly happened in September, yet by chance it spiked.

Just speculating though, I’d like to hear others’ opinion on this thought.

>>bambol+NJ
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan.

Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way?

If I am to put on my tinfoil hat this is exactly the sort of disinformation I would expect from CCP propaganda in order to fight US politician memes of the "China Virus".

>>DoingI+yl1
He's not making an extraordinary claim, just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts. In fact this is the most likely scenario (Wuhan was the first known outbreak but the virus does not originate from there)

Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

>>mytail+3u1
> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts

What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

>>DoingI+Ey1
Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim.

Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking:

We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Now, based on that why would the origin necessarily be Wuhan? Logically, the earlier the cases the closer they are from origin.

The origin of infectious diseases is always tricky to establish. After years we're still not sure about the origin of MERS and possibly SARS. It took decades to pinpoint that HIV appeared in the 1920s, almost 60 years before it can to the world's attention.

While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

>>mytail+uC1
> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any?

> While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

On that we can both agree.

>>DoingI+rG1
First positive tests in France are end of December [1] [2](meaning the people caught the virus days or a week before that). Strongly suspected cases based on thoracic scanners are up to mid November [3].

In Italy people were contaminated even earlier than that, apparently [4].

These are not wholly surprising because, again it is likely that the virus had been circulating for some time in humans before it exploded and was detected. It is quite contagious but many people do not experience any symptoms or only mild, common symptoms, which IMO makes it relatively easy to go undetected until it goes out out of hands, as it did in Wuhan first.

It's good to ask for proof but then you should ask for proof of all claims, not only the ones you do not like.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[2] https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-report...

[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-fr...

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

>>mytail+LJ1
> "I would be very cautious," about these findings, said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, who was also not a part of the study. The results "have to be confirmed with different antibody tests," that look for the prevalence of antibodies that target other parts of the coronavirus.

> His previous experience has shown that such antibody tests for the coronavirus' RBD can create a lot of false positives, Rutherford told Live Science. And because this is "such an unexpected finding," it should be confirmed with other antibody tests such as those that look for antibodies against another one of the coronavirus' proteins, an outer coat called a "nucleocapsid," which is also unique to the novel coronavirus, he said.

> Still, "it's not totally outside the realm of possibility," that the virus circulated in Italy earlier than thought. because there is a lot of travel back and forth between China and Italy, especially northern Italy, he said. But considering the earliest COVID-19 case in Wuhan was reported to be in November, "it really gives me pause to say let's really make sure we got this right before we try and explain it," Rutherford said. [0]

[0] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-circulating-italy-ea...

>>DoingI+ZP1
I'll just repeat that I'm hoping that you are as cautious about pangolin and secret lab stories as you are with this...

I'm puzzled by your attitude and unclear about your aim but you do what you want.

>>mytail+pR1
> I'm hoping that you are as cautious about pangolin and secret lab stories

Seems like you are trying to ridicule me just because you disagree with me.

'Wuhan Institute of Virology' (China's only BSL4 lab) is less than 14km from 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market'.

The 'Wuhan Centre for Disease Prevention & Control' is 1.4 km from the 'Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market'.

Both are public institutions with published research on both virus classification and gain of function experiments.

This is circunstancial evidence. Unlike the previous origin investigation for SARS-Cov1, there has been little transparence or effort to investigate the origin of SARS-Cov2.

Let's agree to disagree. If indeed the origin is a Southern China zoonotic event, which then happened to have a superspreader event in Wuhan, then it is in the interest of the Chinese government to investigate this and disclose this evidence to dissolve international doubts and concerns.