zlacker

>>delbar+(OP)
Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance researching the origins of pandemics, pointed out in April that nearly 3% of the population in China's rural farming regions near wild animals already had antibodies to coronaviruses similar to SARS. "We're finding 1 to 7 million people exposed to these viruses every year in Southeast Asia; that's the pathway. It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field..."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/8417296...

>>Milner+nJ
It would make a lot of sense that SARS-COV2 was spreading in Southern China for a while, but going unnoticed, due to immunity. Then, as soon as one of those rural workers visits another major city further up north, it gets a chance to spread in a more susceptible population.

>>incrud+AL
I dont find that very plausible. There aren't really any places on earth with that many people AND that isolated from the rest of us. For it to be common among them for a long time without escape? I'm not buying it, at least at this level of discussion.

>>phkahl+DM
Also there is quite a lot of domestic travel within China, and it’s not that hard to connect via 1-2 people to a major Chinese city with international flights.

With how contagious we know COVID-19 to be, there is no way it started in Southern China and then infected a significant amount in Wuhan and only Wuhan first, of all places.

>>bobthe+MN
We don't actually know that it was "only Wuhan first". SARS-CoV-2 is believed to have spread worldwide as early as November.

Wuhan is the 9th largest city in China and also more "blue collar" than cities like Beijing or Shanghai, so the odds that the most visible outbreak of all would occur in Wuhan by chance alone aren't as low as you think.