zlacker

>>azhenl+(OP)
This is Berkson's Paradox. Even if coding competition performance correlates positively with job performance in the general population (which it certainly does, given that most people can't code), selecting for this attribute in the hiring process leads to a negative correlation among those hired.

Great write-up by Erik Bernhardsson, CTO of Better, here: https://erikbern.com/2020/01/13/how-to-hire-smarter-than-the....

>>jaredt+g2
Simple analogy. There is no correlation between height and salary across NBA players.[1]

The naive conclusion would be that height has nothing to do with basketball ability. The real answer is that markets are efficient and are already correcting one important feature against other predictors. Steph Curry wouldn't even be in the NBA if had the shooting ability of Gheorghe Mureșan.

[1] https://rpubs.com/msluggett/189114

>>dcolki+L3
It should be mentioned that Steph Curry was drafted behind Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, and Jonny Flynn, among others.

Hiring is always a crapshoot. Pro sports teams spend a lot more time and money on talent evaluation than tech companies and still get it hilariously wrong all the time.

>>_qulr+V7
On the flip side, every NBA player who has won league MVP in the lottery era (>1985) was drafted in the first 15 picks. Steph Curry of course has won MVP twice and was drafted behind the 6 players you mention, but then he was drafted next out of every other eligible player. I'd argue that through this lens, NBA teams are really good at "hiring".

Some teams draft for current skill, others draft for absolutely maximum possible potential, others draft for some combination of both. Some teams are willing to risk a "bust" if there is the potential of ultra-elite league-best skill. And considering that no player who has reached the MVP level has fallen further than 15th, I'd say as a whole the NBA teams are doing very well.

>>birken+Ds
> every NBA player who has won league MVP in the lottery era (>1985) was drafted in the first 15 picks.

I mentioned Steph Curry because the original commenter did, but in general it's very strange to focus on the MVP. That's a small sample and cherry-picking the results, only talking about the successes and overlooking all of the draft busts. There's only 1 MVP in the league every season, and some players have won it multiple times. It was won 5 times by Michael Jordan, who incidentally was drafted 3rd (behind Sam Bowie). Only 21 players have won NBA MVP during that period.

In any case, that MVP record doesn't hold in other sports. For example, NFL MVP Tom Brady was drafted behind 198 other players in 2000.

> NBA teams are really good at "hiring".

Some long-suffering Minnesota Timberwolves fans might say otherwise.