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[return to "Ask HN: What scientific phenomenon do you wish someone would explain better?"]
1. rsp198+im1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 10:15:56
>>qqqqqu+(OP)
Macroeconomics. Central banks are "creating" a trillion here, a trillion there, like nobody's business. But what are the consequences? What is the thought process that central bankers have gone through to make these decisions?

Also why, exactly, are they buying the exact assets that they are buying (govt. debt, high-yield bonds, etc..) and why not others (e.g. stocks or put money into startups)? And then, what happens if a debtor pays back its debt? Is that money consequently getting "erased" again (just like it's been created)? What happens if a debtor defaults on its debt? Does that money then just stay in the economy, impossible to drain out? What is the general expectation of the central banks? What percentage of the debt is expected to default and how much is expected to be paid back?

And specifically in the case of central banks buying govt. debt: Are central banks considered "easier" creditors than the public? What would happen if a country defaults on a loan given by a central bank? Would the central bank then go ahead and seize and liquidate assets of the country under a bankruptcy procedure to pay off the debt (like it would be standard procedure for individuals and companies)?

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2. dmichu+Gw1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 12:25:33
>>rsp198+im1
One approach is reductio ad absurdum:

If Central Banks can create money without negative effects, then

- why tax people?

- why even work? Can't we just print enough money for everyone and live happily ever after?

I realize these questions are quite provocative and their answering only explains if it will work but not how or when it will fail.

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3. mikory+1B1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 13:04:03
>>dmichu+Gw1
Another thing to realise, along these lines, is that economic theories try to explain the world's economy, not dictate it.

I would say that some mathematicians went into economics to win Nobel prizes (which they did win) and I guess they would probably be quick to point this out at well.

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4. TheOth+8F1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 13:37:25
>>mikory+1B1
Economics is a branch of moral philosophy and very consciously uses persuasive rhetoric to dictate policy. One of the tools used is hand-waving hidden inside differential equations to produce models that would be useless in any other discipline.

I don't think I've ever seen a mainstream economic prediction that was actually correct.

It's not hard to understand why. Reducing all the sectors of a complex economy to crayon-drawn measures like "inflation" and "unemployment" - which aren't even measured with any consistency - is like trying to predict the weather in the Bay Area using a single weather station for the entire continental US, which is conveniently located on the wall of a cow shed in Kansas.

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5. marcos+I92[view] [source] 2020-04-27 16:53:56
>>TheOth+8F1
There are two branches of economics. One of them is a science, the other is (politically, economically, and culturally) successful.
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