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[return to "Ask HN: What scientific phenomenon do you wish someone would explain better?"]
1. rsp198+im1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 10:15:56
>>qqqqqu+(OP)
Macroeconomics. Central banks are "creating" a trillion here, a trillion there, like nobody's business. But what are the consequences? What is the thought process that central bankers have gone through to make these decisions?

Also why, exactly, are they buying the exact assets that they are buying (govt. debt, high-yield bonds, etc..) and why not others (e.g. stocks or put money into startups)? And then, what happens if a debtor pays back its debt? Is that money consequently getting "erased" again (just like it's been created)? What happens if a debtor defaults on its debt? Does that money then just stay in the economy, impossible to drain out? What is the general expectation of the central banks? What percentage of the debt is expected to default and how much is expected to be paid back?

And specifically in the case of central banks buying govt. debt: Are central banks considered "easier" creditors than the public? What would happen if a country defaults on a loan given by a central bank? Would the central bank then go ahead and seize and liquidate assets of the country under a bankruptcy procedure to pay off the debt (like it would be standard procedure for individuals and companies)?

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2. texasb+Tv1[view] [source] 2020-04-27 12:19:27
>>rsp198+im1
America Inc, which dated, by I believe Mary Meeker has one view showing USA on a "GAAP" basis. It's not pretty. Leverage is too high. Profit margins are negative. "growth" (in this case government receipts) underperforms entitlement spend. Interest is some non-material portion of revenue such as 15% to 20% (caveat, even the most highly leveraged private equity bought companies don't spend more than 25% of revenue of amortization and interest, generally speaking).

A better but harder resource is I believe by Piketty (the inequality guy): from balance sheet recessions there's usually only a few ways out. He and his co-authors go through every single knkwn recession in every single country (obviously biased towards recent and Western). What I took away from it is that without population growth the US needs hyperinflation, to default on its debt, or to increase tax revenue's sharply and/or decrease entitlements sharpy. It's up to you to guess which one of those three is most likely.

But the budgetary situation is not tenable.

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